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Northern lights forecast september 20

Tonight will most likley be to cloudy to view the amazing northern lights. Solar wind is low and magnometers are flat lined. Stay home, and wait a onother night.


Cloud cover forecast, low and mid-level clouds has openings on the northeast and northeast highlands and few small gaps east of Reykjavik, and in Borgarfjörður, those gaps aren't very reliable as the clouds move fast but with luck the lights could be seen, if not for the high level cloud cover that blocks the whole country. In theory, given the high-level clouds are not thick, lights could be spotted where gaps of low-level clouds are found, but it's unlikely.



Low and mid level clouds at midnight.

High level clouds at midnight

Further reading on the cloud cover at

http://auroraforecast.is/

https://www.vedur.is/

http://belgingur.is/map/island-3.2.full/cloud_cover_total/2019-09-20T00:00+00:00



Geomagnetic observation and KP Index

Geomagnetic observation and KP Index

KP index forecast is kp1

The geomagnetic observation center in Reykjavik and the Swedish Institute of space physics show minimal movements in geomagnetic fields; however, they can drop during the night.

When those lines drop, the measured KP index will increase, and lights will be visibly higher in the sky and usually but not always moving and more vibrant.

All of today's data is indicating a quiet night. Geomagnetic meters are flat-lined and KP very low, meaning if the sky is clear, the lights would be very low on the horizon. Only visible at the north of Iceland looking north. We need kp2 in Reykjavik area to view the lights looking north if lower they will fade under the horizon.



Magnetic Observatory in Reykjavik

K Index for Kiruna local 3 hours and 15-minute intervals

Further reading on real time K and KP index and geomagnetic movements

http://www2.irf.se/Observatory/?link[Magnetometers]=Data

http://cygnus.raunvis.hi.is/~halo/leirvogur.html


Sun Observation


There is a decent size coronal hole pointing towards earth today, and i am expecting the solar wind to arrive from it tomorrow and coming days. It is unlikely for us to encounter it tonight unless incredibly fast-moving wind. It takes the wind approximately 18 hours to 3 days to arrive.





conclusions:

Tonight will most likley be to cloudy to view the amazing northern lights. Solar wind is low and magnometers are flat lined. Stay home, and wait a onother night. Saturday,Sunday,Monday could be worth while if clouds go away.




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