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Northern lights forecast September 23

Well, it has been a hard week for us here in the south but, I am happy to have helped a few hunters in the north that got out and saw the lights under my suggestions. Short version
KP index 3 , My data reading for local K Index is much lower.
Solar wind during the day: 324.5 km/sec which is low
Density: 1.93 protons/cm3 -3 protons/cm3 wich is low
Interplanetary magnetic filed during the day: mostly bz north wich is bad.
solar observation: coronal hole giving lights on saturday has most likley passed. wich is bad.
cloud cover: south,west,east bad North Iceland good.
Cloud cover is still bad for us tonight in the south. Best chance looks to be in Borgarfjörður area, about 2-hour drive north of Reykjavik. Although with a somewhat limited chance, as it is tough to forecast the gaps in the clouds and where exactly they will be. On the bright sight, a big coronal hole is visible on the sun and given clear sky dancing lights will be expected, possibly Wednesday, Thursday, Friday so stay tuned for next days forecast. Best places for tonight is North Iceland such as Myvatn area, see cloud cover picture. Those in Snæfellsnes and Reykjavik should perhaps take a chance on Borgarfjordur area. With BIG luck some gaps might be spotted somewhere from Reykjavik-Þingvellir-Grimsnes-Hella. Another bad thing is solar activity was low last night and has not shown visible improvement in the data, but there is always an x-factor. Regarding tour operators, I am guessing many will cancel, and some might take the chance.
low and mid-level clouds at midnight


high level clouds at midnight

combination of all clouds low-mid and high level at midnight

ATTENTION Cloud cover forecast is updated at 18:00-21:00-00:00 so remember to take a look at those weather update at there websites. Remember there are three types of clouds low-mid and high level.

Cloud cover forecast website

combination of all clouds at midnight


Geomagnetic activity KP and K INDEX Leirvogur geomagnetic observation located in Reykjavik shows minor fluxations.


Swedish Institute of space physics located in Kiruna shows minor activity.


Interplanetary Magnetic Field. Bz level-1.25 nT south at 15:33. If the Bz level is negative, that is an excellent sign. Despite all other numbers, I would take a look when bz is minus something south. this changes fast and is hard to predict.

Solar Wind Speed and density. 315.1 km/sec with 2.90 protons/cm3, which is both bad for us. When the solar wind gets close to 500 km/sec and density closer to 10 protons/cm3 we are in right conditions. However, this changes fast and can have bursts of stronger wind and density even when the numbers are steady on the low site.

Nasa ovation oval

Make sure to follow the link above for real-time pictures as it's updated frequently. The current oval picture looks bad,




Sun observation

The small coronal hole to the right gave us good dancing lights last Saturday. Spotted by hunters in the north of Iceland, I was hoping for some activity from it last night. But the numbers looked low, and there might be some leftovers from it to see tonight. However, the numbers do not indicate it. But my friends do you see the BIG Black-hole on the left that is coming? This will be here possibly wed-Thursday and will last probably until Saturday-Sunday. So lets now hope the clouds will not be in our way.



Conclusion:

North Iceland, Go out you might see the lights, but not expect a show. South: Hella to Borgarfjorður. Limited chance mostly regarding clouds and the activity seams low despite the fact that KP forecast is 3 the data is not supporting it. However, something unpredictable is always a chance with the lights. However, I am not hopeful.


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