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Northernlight forecast September 24

Tonight looks suitable for the north and Borgarfjörður area. Bifröst-Reykolt-HoltavörðuheiðiMy suggestion drive from Reykjavik towards the north after you pass the tunnel through Hvalfjordur, make stops every 20 minutes and go out and scan the sky for stars.when you see stars clear on the north horizon find suitable parking and wait for the lights to come out. You probably have to drive past Borgarness and possibly a half an hour to one hour more to be sure. Tips, if the sky is clear and you don't have lousy light pollution in front of you looking north, just sty there. You are looking at the same lights as everyone ells at least 100 km radius.

short forecast.

Cloud cover: North should be clear of clouds and north parts of Borgarfjörður. South Iceland and east look bad. Solar wind and density: There has been an increase in the solar wind, and the density is good when I am writing this at 15:10. Wind speed now 400 km/sec Density10.64 protons/cm3 which is good. Interplanetary Magnetic Field: Bz -5 when writing this which is good. the solar particles are being sucked into our upper atmosphere So go out if you are in the north of Iceland, and I am sure you will see the lights, possibly in an excellent manner. Same for you that are willing to drive 2-2.5 hours north of Reykjavik until you see stars on the north horizon. The activity looks good, and cloud cover in those areas could be good. detailed forecast with links cloud cover pictures at midnight: low and mid-level clouds, note, the forecast shows a bit more clouds at 22:00 but should clear a bit until midnight in Borgarfjörður, same with the high clouds.


low and mid level clouds at midnight

high level clouds at midnight

Attention important: this is the cloud cover from the 15:00 update. The cloud cover is updated every 3 hours. next one is at 18:00-21:00-00:00

Icelandic meteorologist office

Solar wind and density gauges

solar wind higher then 400 km/sec is good density higher than 6 protons /cm3 interplanetary magnetic field if -south then outstanding. those meters rock back and forth so don't worry too much if they look low, they could quickly improve in 30 minutes. Geomagnetic observation and KP and K index Last night Leirvogur geomagnetic field dropped deep around 2:00 in the morning, and I am sure if someone had a clear sky and still looking something beautiful happened. Observation during the day looks good it's moving a bit, and I am expecting it to drop after dark, hopefully around midnight.


when the line drops, there is good chance on seeing the northern lights after dark.

The Swedish Institute of Space physics located in Kiruna Sweden I use the Kiruna graphs a lot, its located at a similar latitude as Iceland, and has a bit better detailed K index and more information than the Icelandic Leirvogur. My unscientific experience tells me in many cases when the Kiruna starts to drop and show activity. It happens a bit before it happens here in Iceland. It could be the movement of the auroral oval that it hits first there and then moves towards Iceland. This is just a feeling I have, but I would need to ask if there is anything to it. So sometimes when I see something there I can expect something to happen here in 15-60 minutes, so its a bit better to understand what to expect.


graph to the left K index 3 every 3 hour. Graph to the right K index every 15 minutes

Explanation on the K and KP index, in short. The KP is a global number of geomagnetic observation located across the globe, and each station has a different value ( a geo observation in Florida has a higher value than a goe observation in Iceland for example. And the calculation on all of the date gives the KP number. K Index is more of local activity, so even when KP index is low globally, it can be higher in Iceland, and for an average of KP2 can easy have a burst of K INDEX 5 in Iceland or north Sweden. K and Kp index tells me most about where in the sky, I can expect to see the northern lights, not of the vividness or movement. So in Reykjavik area, a real-time K index of K1 (KP1) would be very low on the horizon looking north, almost not visible, but a bit higher on the horizon if in the north of Iceland. KP2 is a bit higher on the horizon looking north from Reykjavik latitude about 25 degrees up if that makes sense, K5 would be almost straight overhead. So on a KP2 forecast remember KP global, a K index Local, could natural burst much higher at a particular time during the night. So local K in many cases peeks at K5 even when KP is calculated much lower. Sun observation


Big black spot is a coronal hole that will most likely give us dancing Northern lights in few days

The sun looks exciting for us, in 1-3 days we will experience what this black hole will bring. This coronal hole may stick around, so those coming to Iceland after 25 of next month could still see the lights from this hole. It takes the sun 27 days to rotate around itself and as we are in a solar minimum, those holes last longer.


Noaa ovation oval

make sure to look at there website as the picture will update during the day




Conclusion: Good forecast for tonight, decent activity, still keep your expectations intact, to see is good if it's more then is a bonus. Clouds Good in the north, and we might have a chance north of Borgarfjordur. Keep your eyes on the cloud cover forecast, and it tends to change.


I only use one app, it shows real-time sky conditions and northern lights. They have 4 cameras pointing north in various places in Iceland, and 1 in North Norway.

take a look at

https://www.liveauroranetwork.com/

I post updates in comments at my facebook page Icelandinmotion my Instagram you can follow for landscape and northern lights pictures


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